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Low Risk Arbitrage Football Transfer Betting Strategy
Risk mitigation is a strategy advanced sports bettors use in many situations, including across many football betting markets. It’s particularly useful for transfer betting because, as you probably know, situations are constantly changing.
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Low Risk Arbitrage Football Transfer Betting Strategy
That’s why I like to reduce my risk by combining free bet bonuses with an arbitrage betting strategy. Arbing, as it’s known in the business, is the act of hedging your bets. I’ve done it for the best part of a decade, so I know it works.
Here’s what I do to reduce my risk when betting on the latest football transfer rumours.
What is Hedging in Sports Betting?
Predominantly used by financial traders, hedging is simply the act of covering both sides of a proposition. In plain English, you bet on two outcomes.
Hedging Example
Let’s say our story about Conor Gallagher’s possible move to Newcastle United catches your eye. Swayed by the story, you head to a UKGC licenced betting site and place a bet on Gallagher making the move.
A week later, there are rumours that Newcastle’s interest in Gallagher has waned. You decide to cover your position by placing a second bet on Gallagher not to move.
How to Use Free Bets for Hedging the Transfer Market
Anyone can hedge their bets, but this strategy is most effective when you’ve got a bonus. This is the ultimate form of risk mitigation in sports betting because you’re taking out an insurance policy without spending any money.
Here are the steps I use to reduce my risk in the football transfers betting market:
- 1
Read the latest transfer news and bookmark three or four.
I typically use three different sources for each transfer story: the Sports Boom transfers page, social media, and Sky Sports News. The stories with the most coverage go into my basket of potential bets.
- 2
Look at the transfer betting odds at five different sportsbooks.
Once I’ve got some potential bets, I look at the odds at five top-rated online sportsbooks, such as Best Odds and Lucky Mate.
- 3
Focus on the transfer with the most attractive odds.
Odds are attractive when they offer the biggest return for the least amount of risk. The conditions will always be different, but you want something better than even money (1/1).
- 4
Place your bet, then look for a betting exchange.
Once you’ve wagered money on a player to move, it’s time to find a hedge. Traditional sportsbooks don’t typically offer odds on something not happening, e.g., a player not moving to a new club.
For this, you need a betting exchange where people offer odds on players not moving clubs. Joining a new betting exchange also maximises your chances of getting free bets.
- 5
Using an arbitrage calculator to determine your stake.
Successfully hedging your bet requires the right odds and stake. That’s where arbitrage calculators come in handy. By entering the odds for both bets and your total stake, the calculator tells you how much to assign to each outcome.
Let’s say you’ve got £20 to wager: £10 is your money, and £10 is a free bet. The odds on Conor Gallagher moving to Newcastle United are 3/1. The odds of him not moving are 6/4. Putting those numbers into an arbitrage calculator returns this result:
- Stake £7.69 on Gallagher moving at 3/1
- Stake £12.31 on Gallagher not moving at 6/4
These bets return a total profit of £10.77, regardless of whether he moves or not.
Final Thoughts
The two final things you need to consider are stake sensitivity and bonus turnover requirements. Stake sensitivity is the amount you can afford to bet. Picking the right bets to hedge can reduce your risk dramatically, but only if you wager a sensible amount.
Finally, all sports betting bonuses have wagering requirements (just the same as online casino bonuses do). The two that matter are bonus turnover and minimum odds. If the odds on your intended bet don’t meet the minimum requirement, you can’t use it to hedge.
Similarly, you need to consider the bonus turnover and how that affects your opposing bet. If wagering the bonus means you must stake more than you can afford to hedge your bet, it’s not worth it.
My advice is to read the terms before you claim a free bet. If it can’t be used as part of an arbitrage betting strategy, simply use it for something else. If it can, you’re on your way to a potentially positive return with very little risk.
Chad’s career in the sports betting industry began in October 2013 when he joined Hollywoodbets. During his time there, he wrote football betting content for the Hollywoodbets Sports Blog and contributed extensively to their weekly betting publication, Soccer Betting News. His work and leadership eventually led to him being appointed Editor-in-Chief of the publication in February 2016.