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Newcastle United vs Manchester City FA Cup Preview: Odds, Tips & Prediction

Date: Saturday, March 7 Venue: St James’ Park Time: 8pm GMT Familiarity can breed contempt, but Newcastle United and Manchester City will face off for the fifth time this season on Saturday, March 7, in the FA Cup fifth round. There is little that these two sides won’t know about each other, and it represents a tasty tie. Indeed, there’s no doubting that the top football platforms will have ample lines for you to check out ahead of the game. The Magpies are fighting on two fronts for silverware, having secured their passage to the Champions League last 16. However, they have experienced heartache in the FA Cup in the past, most memorably losing in the Final to Arsenal and Manchester United in 1998 and 1999 respectively.

Charles Perrin
Charles Perrin

Last updated: 2026-03-02

Chad Nagel

6 minutes read

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Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City celebrates after scoring his team's second goal

Nico O'Reilly of Manchester City celebrates after scoring his team's second goal / Getty Images

City, on the other hand, last won the FA Cup in 2023 and lost the previous two Finals in 2025 and 2024 to Crystal Palace and United, so they will be looking to lift England’s grandest domestic cup competition again.
How will things transpire? We’ve provided a comprehensive preview that includes a Newcastle United vs Manchester City prediction, so let’s jump into it.

Pre-Game Odds and Win Probability: Manchester City Favourites

Pre-match odds are already available, so let’s see what one provider is predicting for Newcastle United vs Manchester City. You can find out more about available markets and coverage here.

  1. Home: 11/5 (3.20) – 31.3%

  2. Draw: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%

  3. Away: 51/50 (2.02) – 49.5%

    *Odds courtesy of Unibet, subject to change.

Head-to-Head Record

Meetings between top Premier League clubs always spark interest, so let’s explore the tale of the tape between Newcastle United and Manchester City in the FA Cup.

Last Five Meetings (FA Cup)

  • 16/03/24: Manchester City 2-0 Newcastle United
  • 28/06/20: Newcastle United 0-2 Manchester City
  • 17/02/02: Newcastle United 1-0 Manchester City
  • 19/02/95: Newcastle United 3-1 Manchester City
  • 29/01/77: Newcastle United 1-3 Manchester City

Newcastle United Current Form – WWWLW

Although their form has wavered in the league, Newcastle have come to the fore in the cup competitions.

For example, against Qarabag in the Champions League, the Magpies made light work of the Azerbaijan outfit, cutting them at will, to surge into the Last 16 proper after a 9-3 aggregate victory in the play-off tie.

Eddie Howe’s men have largely struggled against City, especially against the pace of Antoine Semenyo. Cutting off the supply lines and keeping their shape could be key to progress in the FA Cup.

Key Players to Watch

  • Anthony Gordon
    Direct and tricky, Anthony Gordon, who scored in the 3-3 draw against Bournemouth in the third round, is a nightmare for defenders, and he could run City ragged.
  • Harvey Barnes
    Like Gordon, Barnes is pacey, and when he gets a sniff in front of goal, he invariably takes it. He scored a double against the Cherries in the third round, and he could ask questions of City’s backline.
  • Sandro Tonali
    A versatile and high-intensity midfielder who is brilliant from box-to-box has been amongst the goals lately, and he will look to expose any City deficiencies.

Newcastle United Team News

Newcastle are missing several key players, including Bruno Guimaraes (hamstring) and Fabian Schar (ankle), but Howe should be able to field a strong side to face City.

Manchester City Current Form – WWWWW

Since a surprise 3-2 defeat away to Bodo Glimt in the Champions League in January, City have barely put a foot wrong.

With a League Cup Final to look forward to at the end of the month against Arsenal, Pep Guardiola’s men have been unrelenting, and they will be targeting a fourth win of the campaign against Newcastle.

High pressing and crisp passing are common traits of City, but they may need to soak up some pressure against Newcastle. If they can manage periods of the game well, they could have another positive experience on Tyneside.

Key Players to Watch

  • Rayan Cherki
    A player dripping with talent, Rayan Cerki can make the seemingly impossible look simple, and he can turn up the heat on Newcastle.
  • Erling Haaland
    With 33 goals in all competitions to his name, Erling Haaland has been in blistering form. Although he hasn’t scored against Newcastle since City’s exhilarating 3-3 draw at St James’ Park in the league in 2022, the Norwegian would love to end that drought.
  • Rodri
    Although his season has been disrupted by injuries, Rodri is a midfield schemer. Apart from breaking the lines, he screens the defence and gives them some protection.

Manchester City Team News

The game has come too soon for Jeremy Doku (calf), but Guardiola doesn’t have any fresh injury concerns going into the Newcastle tie.

Predicted Line-Ups

  1. Newcastle United (4-3-3)

    Ramsdale;  Trippier, Botman, Burn, Murphy, Joelinton, Tonali, Gordon, Murphy, Woltemade; Barnes

  2. Newcastle United (4-3-3)

    Ramsdale;  Trippier, Botman, Burn, Murphy, Joelinton, Tonali, Gordon, Murphy, Woltemade; Barnes

Suggested Bets

Ahead of Newcastle United vs Manchester City, let’s weigh in with some match tips and predictions. The odds provided have been sourced from some reliable FA Cup betting operators.

  1. Over 2.5 Goals: Games featuring these two sides over the past couple of seasons have been enterprising. The Over 2.5 goals line has been fulfilled in four of the past five matches in all competitions, so we’re backing a repeat here. (8/15 with William Hill).

  2. Both Teams to Score (Yes): Apart from City’s 2-0 win at St James’ Park in the first leg of their League Cup semi-final in January, the other three meetings that have played out this term has seen the BTTS line hit, so this is worth getting behind. (1/2 with Midnite)

  3. Highest Scoring Half (1st Half): In the past couple of meetings, there have been three goals netted in the first 45 minutes, which would suggest we could witness plenty of goals in the first half. The first half to be the highest scoring half is worth tapping into. (39/20 with Bet442)

Value Bets

When playing at revered FA Cup betting sites, there is usually an entry-level promotion to use on markets advertised for all ties. This is what has caught our eye for Newcastle United vs Manchester City.

  1. Newcastle to Win: The Magpies have already beaten City once this season in the league, so there is no reason to suggest that, backed by a fervent crowd, they could book an FA Cup quarter-final spot. (11/5 with Bzeebet)

  2. Anytime scorer – Omar Marmoush: Invariably, Marmoush is a livewire, and having scored twice against Newcastle in the League Cup last month, he could find the target again. (2/1 with Leovegas)

  3. Antoine Semenyo Over 1.5 Shots on Target: Semenyo has had an electric start to his City career, and he could test the Magpies goalkeeper. The Over 1.5 shots on target has some merit. (23/10 with BetMGM)

Prediction: Manchester City to Win

Manchester City will relish a trip to face a Newcastle United side, whom they’ve already beaten on three separate occasions. League form often counts for little in the FA Cup.

However, recent FA Cup meetings have seen City come out on top, and they’ve won the last two contests without conceding. Games at St James’ Park are always raucous but entertaining affairs. Given City’s pedigree in the competition, we expect them to come out on top and progress to the last eight.

Charles Perrin
Charles PerrinSports Betting Writer

Charles Perrin has spent over six years writing about sports betting, working with some of the UK’s top sportsbooks, including bet365 and William Hill.

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