Next Goalscorer Betting Explained: What it is & How it Works

Of course, our ‘gut instinct’ is not always a useful vehicle for betting. But if you can back up your feeling with data and implied probability, you may just be onto something.

During the game, sportsbooks are constantly updating their next goalscorer odds. These lines are based on game state and flow, as well as individual player battles in key areas.

And betting on who will find the net next can be a unique way to secure value…

How Next Goalscorer Betting Works

Next goalscorer betting is pretty straightforward: bets placed on the player that scores the next goal will be settled as winners.

All players on the pitch at the time the bet is struck are eligible ^[1]. If your player is substituted, your bet will likely be settled as a loss – although some bookies do now run ‘super sub’ style promotions, where your wager rolls over to the player subbed on for your original selection.

For example, Arsenal and Liverpool are drawing 1-1 in the 65th minute at the Emirates Stadium. On away soil, Liverpool may be content with the draw and so sit deep, allowing Arsenal to have possession of the ball.

In this game state, the bookies will price up their next goalscorer market with shorter prices for some Arsenal players, while recognising that Liverpool could score on the counter-attack or via a set piece.

When the next goal goes in, the market is resettled before reopening with new prices based on the game state.

So, if Arsenal go 2-1 up, for example, then the odds on Liverpool’s players may now shorten as they throw bodies forward in search of an equaliser.

How Sportsbooks Price Next Goalscorer Odds

The fundamental pricing triggers are long-term indicators: which is the strongest team? Which players score most prolifically?

That creates general probabilities for the next goalscorer market, which are then tweaked to account for the specific game state.

Traders will consider:

• Current score
• Motivation levels
• Expected goals (xG)
• Shot volumes
• How long is left in the match

Other factors include a consideration of which players take penalties and free kicks, and which are dangerous at attacking set pieces.

As always, pricing reflects statistical probability… not statistical certainty. 

Understanding Probability in Next Goalscorer Markets

If we discount goalkeepers for this market, that leaves 20 outfield players that could – in theory – be the next goalscorer. 

So, variance is high in this market, which explains why even the favourites and those considered most likely to find the net are priced longer than they would be in the anytime goalscorer category.

Odds reflect the implied probability of a player scoring next. The longer the odds, the lower the implied probability of that outcome occurring:

When Next Goalscorer Betting Works Best

We can hold up a mirror to the mistakes detailed above to reveal our next goalscorer betting checklist.

You should analyse game state, tactical set-ups, and shot data before betting, as well as calculating implied probability at the odds provided.

Disciplined staking and bankroll management – and only entering a position when you consider it to be value – are also vital.