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Win to Nil Betting Explained: Strategy, Examples & Expert Playbook (2026)

Your comprehensive guide to Win to Nil betting: how to use this strategy to bet on football at top UK betting sites

Farah Barry

Freelance Casino Writer

Last updated: 2026-02-12

Fact checked by:

Chad Nagel

Sports & Betting Editor

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Table of Contents

What Is Win to Nil Betting?

After a decade of betting on football, I have learned that Win to Nil is a market that doesn’t suit the favourite in every game. For my Win to Nil bet to win, my team needs to win the game and prevent the other team from scoring.

There’s more to it than just backing the better team. Tactical setup, defensive ability, and a lot more come into it. I’ll show you exactly how win-to-nil betting works and even some of the best leagues for win-to-nil markets on most sportsbooks.

How Win to Nil Betting Works

Put simply, wagering on a Win to Nil betting market means backing a team to win the match and not concede any goals.

The first market I usually see on any match at leading online sportsbooks is the 1X2 market. Here’s how it would work on the Premier League match between Brentford and Arsenal at the Gtech Community Stadium on 12 February 2026, for example:

1
I select Arsenal to win
2
They have to keep a clean sheet
3
If they concede a goal, I lose
4
Settlement is based on 90 minutes plus stoppage time

Some possible outcomes are:

2-0: I win
2-1: I lose
0-0: I lose

How to Bet Win to Nil Properly

Some football punters like to back heavy favourites in the Win to Nil market, which is different from my approach. Just because a team doesn’t have much of a chance to win doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t score at all.

I always make sure to check recent results and stats to see if the team I fancy has a tendency to keep clean sheets. Betting against teams that have been struggling in front of goal is as much of a benefit as backing teams out of form. I’ve had plenty of Win to Nil bets lose because I’ve backed against a team on a losing run. They often lose again but score during the game.

MY TOP TIP: Now I make sure I’m not just looking at previous scorelines as they won’t always paint the full picture. Possession and territory stats are as important as recent goals conceded.

Why Win to Nil Betting Works

Win to Nil is about reducing game volatility. If a football team is strong enough to dictate the pace of play, it reduces the chances of them conceding a goal.

One of the best examples of this is the famous Spain side from 2008. They weren’t known as a defensive team, but by dominating possession and dictating how the game was played, they managed a lot of clean sheets in their wins. The opposition rarely got the chance to score because they hardly had the ball.

That Spain side had tough matchups in the semi-final and final. They kept the ball in both games and won them to nil. This was a real eye-opener for me and put Win to Nil betting more at the forefront of my mind.

Best Sports for Win-to-Nil Betting

I have found that a lot of the same principles of football win-to-nil betting apply to other sports too. While there might not always be a market called ‘Win to Nil’, I have been able to place bets that have the same meaning.

Baseball: Dominant victories do happen in baseball, and the closest equivalent to Win to Nil is backing a certain team to win, while restricting the opponents to zero runs. This usually relies heavily on an excellent pitcher or a weak batting performance from the other team, similar to football teams performing poorly in front of goal.
I don’t normally see these markets in baseball in leagues beyond the MLB. It’s something I will look for when game betting becomes available in March.
Tennis: Tennis is another good sport for Win to Nil betting, although I’m yet to see that specific betting market. Different betting sites will have a variety of options, and I have bet on players not to win a set before.
These markets are best in the early rounds of tournaments, when lower-seeded players can be outclassed - that’s similar to the mismatches I’ve seen in group stages of the Champions League. My bet only wins if my selection doesn’t lose a set if I bet on the set correct score market, or a point if I bet on the game’s correct score.
American Football: There are usually a couple of options for NFL bettors along these lines, too. I like to play it semi-safe and back ‘No touchdown scorer’ in the Team First Touchdown Scorer market - if a team doesn’t get any touchdowns, they will of course score zero, and the opponents will Win to Nil, assuming they score.
I have seen odds for shutouts (the NFL term for clean sheets), but these are quite rare in this sport. A team with a solid defence and great run game will often stifle opponents and restrict them to field goal attempts. Most betting sites only offer these extra markets on the NFL and NCAAF (college football) during the season, so look out for them later in the year.

Win to Nil Is About More Than Just Defence

There’s a lot more to predicting whether or not a team will concede beyond just what striker they’re facing. The team’s style of play and tactical approach is a major factor. If they keep possession for long spells, tend to defend deep or press their opponents into making mistakes, then a clean sheet could well be on the cards.

I’ll pretty much never see a game where a team doesn’t have any shots. The quality of the chances and the xG (a stat that measures a team’s expected goals based on their shots) is what will often decide if they score.

Arsenal have recorded 13 clean sheets in the Premier League this season, the highest total in the division, underlining their strong win-to-nil credentials. (Source: Stat Muse)

Win to Nil Pros & Cons

Pros

Better odds than the 1X2 market
Find extra value by analysing recent trends
More variation in prices at betting sites

Cons

More risk – my bet is a loser if my selection concedes a goal
Odds on other similar markets may be shorter but worth taking

Like all football betting markets, Win to Nil betting will be a matter of personal taste. It’s a market I will always check when betting on a game.

The 3 Drivers of Win to Nil Value

1
Defensive Solidity - Winning the game is one thing, but your selection needs to be solid at the back. A reliable goalkeeper and a track record of restricting opponents to long shots or half chances is key.
2
How a Match is Played – A team being able to dictate the tempo of a game and dominate territorially is just as important as being strong at the back. As the number of opposition chances decreases, so does the clean sheet risk.
3
Opponent Inefficiency - Spotting that a team has lost a handful of games in a row isn’t enough. I like to check their xG, how efficient their attacking players are, and the general quality and frequency of the chances they create.

Settlement Rules

There are a number of settlement rules to be aware of when betting on football, Win to Nil betting. The main one is that bets are settled on 90 minutes only. This includes injury time at the end of the game, but does not include any periods of extra time.

So, if I bet on a team to win to nil and it finishes 0-0, goes to extra time and your team wins 1-0, my bet is a loser. For settlement purposes, that match finished 0-0.

Abandoned or postponed match rules apply too, which could see your bet voided either the same day or a couple of days later. This depends on the betting site.

Win to Nil vs Other Football Markets

Win to Nil vs Clean Sheet

Betting on a team to keep a clean sheet is simply a bet that they won’t concede any goals. This is pretty much a bet on them to win to nil with the added safety net of knowing a 0-0 result will be a winner. There often isn’t a huge difference in the odds, but a Clean Sheet will always be a shorter price than Win to Nil.

Win to Nil vs 1X2

If I’m looking for a straightforward bet on a team to win, 1X2 is the way to go. However, if I feel one of the teams will control the tempo, possession, and the game in general, the Win to Nil market is better. There’ll be better odds on offer, although conceding a goal will kill the bet.

Win to Nil vs Correct Score

Win to Nil betting is hugely popular because it covers a range of scores. 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 and 4-0 are all possible outcomes for a dominant team. Having all of them running for you is a big plus.

With Correct Score betting, I need to predict the exact scoreline. A team that’s 3-0 may just pass the ball around rather than going for a fourth goal late on. That’s no use to me if I have backed 4-0.

The Controlled Victory Archetype System

There are typically three different match types that suit Win to Nil betting. Let’s break them down and look at their potential risks.

Possession Lockdown Win - This is arguably the best game type for Win to Nil betting. Teams that can dominate possession and the game script aren’t that common. These are the teams that can reduce their opponents’ efforts on goal to half-chances that are few and far between. If they face an opponent with similar tactics, it can result in a 0-0 draw.
Defensive Wall Win - Some teams like to get numbers behind the ball and frustrate their opposition. This can be a perfect setup for a team to win to nil by grabbing a goal and shutting up shop, but a lot can go wrong. One defensive mistake can lead to conceding a goal and my bet losing.
Mismatch Blowout - I see matches where there’s a massive gulf in class between the sides every week. On paper, you would think this is an easy Win to Nil betting opportunity. Sometimes it pays off, purely because one team is so much better than the other. Quite often, though, teams winning by a wide margin will take their foot off the pedal and concede a consolation goal. This happens a lot, and it’s a trap a lot of bettors fall into when choosing this market on the wrong game.

Best Leagues for Win to Nil Betting

Some leagues are better than others for Win to Nil betting. I’ve highlighted why the market is one to watch for some top competitions.

League	Best Angle	Why It Works	Risk
Serie A	Back home favourites	Lower average xG games	0–0 draw risk
Premier League	Target dominant possession sides	Tactical imbalance vs weaker teams.	High-scoring volatility
Champions League	Group-stage mismatches	Elite vs limited teams	Late consolation goals

Universal Win to Nil Checklist

It’s always a good idea to do my homework before placing a bet. Here are a few things to check before betting on a Win to Nil.

Defensive injuries or suspensions
Goalkeeper form
Opponent scoring trend
Tactical setup for both teams
Match motivation – does the team I’m betting against have anything to play for?

FAQs

Is Win to Nil profitable long term?

There is no perfect betting system that can guarantee long-term profitability. Win to Nil soccer betting does give bettors a chance to get higher prices on teams they fancy, though. Just factor in more than a team’s reputation or recent scorelines.

How is it different from a normal win?

The one big difference is that they need to keep a clean sheet in the process of winning. Winning and conceding are no good here, which is why I get bigger odds.

What’s the biggest risk with this market?

Win to Nil bets can lose at any moment. Any early defensive mistake or the winning team easing off late on. Defensive errors or stunning goals can happen at any stage in the game to kill the bet.

When is Win to Nil a good betting option?

Win to Nil can be a good option when a strong defensive team is playing against a side that struggles to score, especially away from home. I usually look at recent clean sheets, expected goals against, and whether the underdog creates many big chances before considering this market.

Can I use Win to Nil bets in accumulators?

Yes, Win to Nil selections are often available in accumulators, and they can boost the overall odds. That said, they also add extra risk because you’re relying on both a win and a clean sheet. I normally only include them in accas when the matchup clearly supports a low-scoring opponent.

Farah BarryFreelance Casino Writer

Farah themed her 21st birthday party around Las Vegas, so it’s safe to say her fascination with casinos has been going strong for well over a decade. Having started her career in the gambling industry working in customer retention for one of the UK’s leading casino brands, she later turned her attention to freelance writing, collaborating with all of the best online gambling affiliates in the business. Farah is based in Ireland but proudly carries her South African roots wherever she goes.