Is Lewis Hamilton About to Fix Ferrari’s Silverstone Curse?

There is one statistic Ferrari would rather not advertise ahead of this weekend's British Grand Prix.

Across the 20 Silverstone races since Lewis Hamilton made his Formula One debut in 2007, one driver has outperformed the entire Scuderia. Hamilton has won the British Grand Prix nine times. Ferrari, as a team, has managed just four victories over the same period. 

Hamilton owns a 45% win rate at Silverstone ^[1], compared to Ferrari's 20%, while reaching the podium in 75% of his starts against the team's 55%.

Now, for the second time, Hamilton arrives at Silverstone wearing Ferrari red.

The question is no longer whether Hamilton knows how to win at Silverstone. Nearly two decades of results answer that emphatically. The real question is whether Ferrari's recent struggles at one of Formula One's fastest circuits will limit the greatest Silverstone driver the sport has ever seen, or whether Hamilton is precisely the figure Ferrari has been missing.

The Favourite/Underdog Split

Hamilton's Silverstone record becomes even more revealing when viewed through the lens of betting markets.

Whenever he has started the British Grand Prix as one of the favourites, priced at 4/1 or shorter, his record borders on flawless. 

Across ten such starts, Hamilton has produced ten podiums and seven victories ^[1]. When the market has backed him, it has almost always been right.

The numbers shift dramatically when he starts as an outsider. 

In 10 British Grand Prix races where Hamilton was priced longer than 4/1, he has managed 5 podiums and only 2 victories. Still an exceptional record by almost any standard, but nowhere near the dominance that defines his Silverstone legacy.

This weekend, he starts at around 9/2 ^[7].

His two underdog victories also came under extraordinary circumstances. The 2008 win arrived in torrential rain ^[8], where Hamilton mastered conditions that caught out almost every rival and finished over a minute clear. 

His 2024 triumph ended a 945-day winless streak in a Mercedes that was rarely competitive elsewhere, on a weekend where everything finally aligned.

Those victories underline Hamilton's brilliance, but they also illustrate that his underdog wins have generally required something out of the ordinary.

This year's forecast looks dry. The emotional weight of ending the win drought has already passed. Ferrari has improved significantly, but it is still not universally regarded as the fastest package on the grid.

History suggests Hamilton at 9/2 is far from a certainty.

The Verdict 

The evidence supports both sides of the debate.

The bullish case begins with Hamilton's unmatched Silverstone pedigree. No modern Formula One driver has built a stronger record at a single circuit. He has won in dominant machinery, won in inferior machinery, won in wet and dry conditions, recovered from setbacks and repeatedly outperformed expectations.

His 2024 victory came as an 18/1 outsider in a Mercedes few expected to challenge for victory. Ferrari's current package is significantly stronger than that car ever was, while Hamilton's victory in Spain earlier this season demonstrated both driver and team have genuine race-winning pace.

If you believe Hamilton's second Ferrari season mirrors Alonso's trajectory, there is every reason to see value in the current odds.

The opposing argument is equally persuasive.

Hamilton's own Silverstone history shows his podium rate falls dramatically whenever he enters as an underdog. Both outsider victories came under exceptional circumstances that may prove difficult to repeat.

Ferrari's recent Silverstone record remains modest despite Hamilton's arrival, and there is little evidence that this circuit naturally plays to the strengths of the SF-26. Championship leader Kimi Antonelli sits shorter in the betting market for good reason.

Yet perhaps the strongest argument in Hamilton's favour has little to do with Silverstone at all.

Heading into this weekend, Hamilton sits third in the Drivers' Championship behind Mercedes pair Antonelli and George Russell ^[12]. More significantly, he is the only driver on the entire grid to have scored points in every race of the 2026 season.

Not the championship leader. Not the reigning world champion. Hamilton.

In a season where reliability issues, strategy mistakes and incidents have caught out every major contender, that level of consistency speaks volumes. It reflects a driver operating at an exceptionally high baseline every weekend.