How Premier League Outright Markets Shift

Usually posted a couple of months before the start of a new Premier League campaign, outrights are season-long markets and they come in all forms and guises.

They can be attractive as there may be longer odds on a team to lift the title. Leicester City’s title triumph in the 2015/16 campaign was a prime example of this as they were priced rank outsiders at 5,000/1 when the book opened before defying expectations.

Inevitably, outright market changes in accordance with events happening on and off the pitch, but why do they shift? We have revealed some telling factors below.

In it for the Long Haul?

Outright odds aren’t static opinions; they don’t stand still. Bookies will change prices, and that is partly down to the media narrative created. The media rarely needs little encouragement to latch onto precarious situations, such as when certain teams are lingering in the relegation zone, and they can amplify prevailing fears.

Clubs, as we have often seen over the years, have lost patience and dismissed a manager, which in turn can fuel the rumour mill and spark bookie opinions on who the replacement will be. Reports often emerge of potential candidates being in the frame when they aren’t necessarily concrete or viable options, but this can still trigger a flurry of odds advertised by betting operators.

Often, prices change before the table fully tells the story. Fans can easily access information about a team’s form guide through the official Premier League site, which tracks rudimentary stats, such as standings, points, and goal difference, serving as a valuable reference point.

However, playing the outright markets is as much about skill as it is about holding your nerve. Casual bettors, for example, may decide to wager a small amount, such as £5, for a team to go down. However, only those bettors with nerves of steel may sit on their wager until the end of the season rather than cashing out early if they are anxious about missing out on a big return.

Tapping into other insights

It’s not just performances that can cause market shifts. Injuries can also take their toll on a team and influence odds. Say, for example, Manchester City hitman Erling Haaland was sidelined with a calf problem after undergoing a scan, causing him to miss a run of games. This could throw City off their stride if they were jostling for the title, as the Norwegian is highly proficient in front of goal.

The outright odds, therefore, for City may drift in this case. Nevertheless, bettors must feed off all insights and team news updates and apply these appropriately when lining up their selections.