Did Chelsea Make a Mistake Selling Andrey Santos? Data Analyses His £50m Move to Manchester United

What Chelsea Are Losing

Santos made 27 Premier League appearances (13 starts, 14 substitute appearances) during the 2025/26 campaign, playing 1,255 minutes, the equivalent of just under 14 full league matches^[2].

Across all competitions (Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup, Carabao Cup and Club World Cup), he featured 47 times^[3][4].

On the surface, those numbers paint the picture of a dependable squad player rather than an automatic starter.

The team results, however, are more eye-catching.

Chelsea won 55.3% of matches across all competitions when Santos featured, compared to just 36.8% when he wasn't included in the squad^[5][6].

More notably, that trend survived one of the most chaotic managerial seasons in recent Premier League history.

Santos played under Enzo Maresca (before his move to Manchester City), Liam Rosenior during his brief 107-day spell, and interim coach Calum McFarlane across two caretaker periods.

Of course, raw win percentage doesn't account for opposition quality or squad rotation, so it isn't proof that Santos directly caused Chelsea to win more matches.

However, an 18 percentage-point swing across 66 fixtures and three different managerial regimes is difficult to dismiss outright. At the very least, it raises legitimate questions over whether Chelsea gave him enough opportunities.

His season also ended on a high.

In Chelsea's penultimate league game, Santos played the full 90 minutes, scoring his only Premier League goal in a 2-1 victory away at Tottenham. Rather than fading into the background, he finished the campaign looking like a player building momentum, making the decision to sell him only weeks later appear more surprising.

Can Santos Replace Casemiro?

This is where the analysis becomes more interesting.

Santos is effectively arriving to occupy the space Casemiro has vacated, but they aren't identical players.

Casemiro remains the greater aerial threat, with seven of his nine goals coming via headers, while his defensive volume, tackles, interceptions and overall defensive contributions comfortably exceed Santos' output.

Santos, however, offers cleaner possession.

He completed 90.1% of his passes compared to Casemiro's 81.3%, while also winning a higher percentage of his duels (62.0% compared to 52.7%)^[7].

Structurally, both players operate as disciplined defensive midfielders shielding the back four rather than driving forward with the ball. Santos' 0.14 successful dribbles per 90 is the lowest figure among every midfielder analysed.

A Brazilian scout previously described Santos as "a mix between Bruno Guimarães and Casemiro", although statistically his game resembles Casemiro far more than Guimarães^[8].

The verdict is fairly straightforward.

Santos is a sensible positional replacement, but in the short term represents a downgrade defensively and physically. The upside is obvious, he's 22, while Casemiro is 34.

Does Santos fit the Ugarte profile? 

Potentially not.

With Juventus, Everton and Crystal Palace all monitoring Ugarte, alongside the serious knee injury suffered at the World Cup, United may need Santos to cover aspects of Ugarte's role too.

Here, the profiles diverge more sharply.

Ugarte is comfortably the most defensive midfielder in this comparison, producing 15.47 defensive contributions per 90, more than 60% higher than Santos^[9].

He is a specialist destroyer.

Santos is calmer in possession and a superior passer, but significantly less aggressive as a ball-winner.

If United expect him to replicate Ugarte's defensive workload, the numbers suggest he isn't that player.

Instead, Santos sits somewhere between the two.

The reporting around the transfer described him as offering "more defensive solidity than Mainoo" and "better ball progression than Ugarte", which aligns closely with the underlying data.

How Does He Fit Alongside Mainoo and Bruno?

Carrick's likely midfield trio of Santos, Kobbie Mainoo and Bruno Fernandes appears complementary on paper.

Each player performs a clearly different role.

Bruno remains the attacking hub, leading comfortably for goals, assists (0.62 per 90), expected goals and chances created (3.99 per 90). His modest defensive numbers and 45.6% duel success illustrate that defensive responsibility isn't his primary role^[10].

Mainoo acts as the connector.

His 1.03 successful dribbles per 90 is more than seven times Santos' figure, while he also contributes the second-highest creative output and posts the strongest defensive contribution rate of the trio (10.12 per 90)^[11].

Santos provides the platform.

He records the highest passing accuracy (90.1%), highest tackle rate (2.65 per 90), highest duel success (62.0% compared to Mainoo's 49.5% and Bruno's 45.6%) and the lowest attacking output.

In theory, it's a balanced division of labour. Santos protects possession, Mainoo carries the ball, and Bruno creates chances.

The concern is physical rather than tactical.

Neither Santos nor Mainoo offers Casemiro's aerial dominance or Ugarte's ball-winning intensity. Against quicker, more direct opponents, that combination could be vulnerable in transition.

Creatively, the trio also relies heavily on Bruno.

Having played every league minute last season, any absence would leave Santos and Mainoo contributing just 0.07 and 0.05 goals per 90, alongside 0.00 and 0.11 assists per 90, respectively.