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The £1bn Black Market Takeover: Illegal Ad Spend Set to Overtake UK Market by 2028
For the first time in history, we’re approaching what’s being described as a tectonic shift for gambling in the UK. New research commissioned by the Betting and Gaming Council and conducted by World Advertising Research Center suggests that by 2028, unlicensed offshore operators will account for more than half of all gambling advertising spend in the UK.
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The £1bn Black Market Takeover
The findings landed just two days before MPs convened in a Westminster Hall debate to assess how regulatory changes are reshaping the industry, with a key topic of concern being that current policies may be accelerating the shift toward the black market.
A Two-Speed Market Emerges
At the heart of the WARC BGC report 2026 is the ‘two-speed’ gambling economy:
- Licensed operators are pulling back, with ad spend forecast to fall by 9.2% this year to £1.05bn.
- Unlicensed operators are rapidly scaling, with ad spend projected to rise by 32% to £845m in the same period.
This divergence is being driven by the tightening of regulations. Recent increases to Remote Gaming Duty (from 21% to 40%) alongside mandatory affordability checks, are placing additional cost and compliance pressures on licensed firms.
At the same time, offshore operators face no such constraints, allowing them to deploy increasingly aggressive marketing strategies across digital channels, with none of the worries of increasing taxation on their margins.
Search, Sponsorship and ‘Parasite SEO’
Search advertising has become the primary avenue for marketing, with total spend across platforms such as Google and Bing reaching £703m. According to the report, illegal affiliates are exploiting ‘parasite SEO’ tactics to rank prominently in search results, bypassing restrictions that apply to licensed brands.
Sponsorship is expected to follow a similar trajectory. WARC predicts that unlicensed operators could control more than 50% of all gambling sponsorship spend as early as the 2026/27 season. The UK black market ad spend 2028 is estimated to surpass £1bn.
Westminster Pressure and the VPN Challenge
Speaking ahead of the debate, BGC CEO Grainne Hurst warned that current policies risk ‘bolstering the harmful illegal black market,’ a sentiment echoed by several MPs. One of the issues compounding this is growing use of VPN technology. The UKGC has flagged this as a key obstacle to effectively blocking traffic to unlicensed sites.
The question now facing policymakers is whether regulatory tightening can coexist with a competitive licensed market.
Claudia Hartley is a versatile content writer and editor with a strong footing in digital publishing, particularly within the iGaming and affiliate space. With nearly a decade of experience, she has built a reputation for producing clear, engaging, and well-researched content that connects with readers while meeting SEO goals.